Evernote Openbook: Geopolitics

Mexico, Pakistan face 'rapid and sudden' collapse: Pentagon

Sat, 17 Jan 2009 22:07:35 GMT

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Presented by

Mexico, Pakistan face 'rapid and sudden' collapse: Pentagon

Report tries to forecast 25 years into the future

Peter Goodspeed, National Post Published: Thursday, January 15, 2009

Farooq Naemm/AFP/Getty Image

A new Pentagon report that tries to predict the type of challenges the U.S. military will face over the next 25 years warns that Mexico and Pakistan could face a "rapid and sudden" collapse.

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels," the assessment of worldwide security threats says. "How that international conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state."

"Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone," it adds. However, a similar scenario in Pakistan would be catastrophic.

"Some forms of collapse in Pakistan would carry with it the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons," the report says. "That ‘perfect storm' of uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger."

While most of the world's weak and failing states present chronic problems for military planners, the report's authors say the real dangers come when troubled states implode

They point to the breakup of Yugoslavia into a tangle of warring nationalities in the 1990s to demonstrate how suddenly and catastrophically such a thing can happen.

Trying to glimpse 25 years into the future, to 2030 and beyond, the U.S. military's Joint Operations Command predicts a world filled with radical technological, strategic and economic challenges, where "our enemy's capabilities will range from explosive vests wo...

China and base metals

Fri, 05 Dec 2008 01:54:47 GMT

Chinese central government considering buying all types of base metals for reserves

The South China Morning Post reports the purchases are being considered to boost domestic demand and help producers. The director of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Centre at the State Council says buying metals for reserves would ease pressure on struggling smelters. No mention is made of replacing the country's US dollar holdings in its reserves. In any case, economists and a figure for Jiangxi Copper (358.HK) express doubt buying metals is a long-term strategy to support producers. Recall that 1-Dec, Yunnan province said it would buy 1M tonnes of metals to support the province's industry, and the next day, Guangxi province said it would consider a similar move.

Canadian Prime Minister acting like dictator

Fri, 05 Dec 2008 01:53:07 GMT

Canadian leader shuts Parliament to keep power

OTTAWA – Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper shut down Parliament on Thursday in an unprecedented attempt to keep his government in power, fending off a no-confidence vote he was all but certain to lose.

Less than two months after winning re-election, Harper successfully asked the unelected representative of the head of state for the power to close down Parliament until Jan. 26, hoping to buy enough time to develop a stimulus package that could prop up the economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081204/ap_on_re_ca/canada_political_crisis

Zimbabwe congradulates the US/UK for their monetary policy

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 00:42:05 GMT

Quoted from Dr Marc Faber

"When Mr. Bernanke became Fed chairman and when he talked aboutdropping dollar bills from helicopters onto the US and taking"extraordinary" monetary measures in order to support asset markets, people did not take him too seriously. But as it turns out, he has done exactly what he wrote about and what he repeatedly stated in speeches.

He is the John Law of the 21st century - a money printer and market manipulator par excellence. A friend of ours recently sent us the following comment from Dr. G. Gono, chairman of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (no hoax):

"As Monetary Authorities, we have been humbled and have taken heart in the realization that some leading Central Banks, including those in the USA and the UK, are now not just talking of, but also actually implementing flexible and pragmatic central bank support programmes where these are deemed necessary in their National interests.

...That is precisely the path that we began over 4 years ago in pursuit of our national interest and we have not wavered on that critical path despite the untold misunderstanding, vilification, and demonization we have endured from across the political divide.

...Here in Zimbabwe we had our near-bank failures a few years ago and we responded by providing the affected Banks with the Troubled Bank Fund (TBF) for which we were heavily criticized even by some multilateral institutions who today are silent when the Central Banks of UK and USA are going the same way and doing the same thing under very similar circumstances thereby continuing the unfortunate hypocrisy that what's good for goose is not good for the gander.

...As Monetary Authorities, we commend those of our peers, the world over, who have now seen the light on the need for the adoption of flexible and practical interventions and support to key sectors of the economy when faced with unusual circumstances."

General comments from LeMet

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 23:40:46 GMT

To all; so much has happened in the last 90 days that it is mind boggling. Since Sept. 1st we have watched Fannie and Freddie fail, AIG, WAMU, Lehman, Wachovia, Merrill Lynch, and Citigroup [all household names] have all either failed, been merged or bailed out. During this period the government has announced the bulk of its' $8.5 trillion in bailouts, buyouts, and sellouts. Just last week alone the Fed and Treasury came out with $1.1 trillion of candy for the banks and credit markets. The media reported it "matter of factly" and everyone just yawned. Back in late Sept. when the Treasury announced the $700 billion TARP, the public was seething and Congress was told if they didn't pass it, martial law would commence. Today it is nothing but yawns from the frogs about to get boiled.

So much has occurred over the last 90 days that "numb" is how I would describe investors. The information overload of bad news, bankruptcies, failures, bailouts, Fed and Treasury giveaways have come so fast and in such quantity that the average investor can't even process 2+2 anymore. What we have witnessed has been the complete and total looting of the Treasury. The ingredients for this cake took over thirty years in the making, we watched for the last 15 months as the ingredients were mixed together while only during the last 90 days did we protest mildly as it was being placed in the oven.

Red Alert on Pakistan

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 00:57:21 GMT

RED ALERT - Possible Geopolitical Consequences of the Mumbai Attacks

Summary
If the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants as it appears, the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the United States into the fray.

Analysis
At this point the situation on the ground in Mumbai remains unclear following the militant attacks of Nov. 26. But in order to understand the geopolitical significance of what is going on, it is necessary to begin looking beyond this event at what will follow. Though the situation is still in motion, the likely consequences of the attack are less murky.

We will begin by assuming that the attackers are Islamist militant groups operating in India, possibly with some level of outside support from Pakistan. We can also see quite clearly that this was a carefully planned, well-executed attack.

Given this, the Indian government has two choices. First, it can simply say that the perpetrators are a domestic group. In that case, it will be held accountable for a failure of enormous proportions in security and law enforcement. It will be charged with being unable to protect the public. On the other hand, it can link the attack to an outside power: Pakistan. In that case it can hold a nation-state responsible for the attack, and can use the crisis atmosphere to strengthen the government’s internal position by invoking nationalism. Politically this is a much preferable outcome for the Indian government, and so it is the most likely course of action. This is not to say that there are no outside powers involved — simply that, regardless of the ground truth, the Indian government will claim there were.

That, in turn, will plunge India and Pakistan into the worst crisis they have had since 2002. If the Pakistanis are understood to be responsible for the attack, then the Indians must hold them responsible, and that means they will have to take action...

Joel Rosenberg’s Weblog

Wed, 12 Nov 2008 01:27:16 GMT

November 10, 2008 BIN LADEN VOWS MAJOR NEW ATTACKS: Olmert vows to divide Jerusalem

* Al-Quds Al-Arabi: Bin Laden Has Ordered an Attack Bigger than 9/11 That Will ‘Change the World Politically and Economically’

Al Qaeda is preparing for catastrophic new attacks

Tensions in the epicenter are running high as the world watches closely to see if Israel is going to launch preemptive strikes against Iran during this window between the U.S. elections and the inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama on January 20th, or if Iran will use this window to launch preemptive strikes against Israel. I make no predictions about what will happen. My team and I continue to pray for the peace of Jerusalem and the entire region. We’re praying for a peaceful regime change in Tehran and Damascus and for a respite from all the wars and rumors of wars. We have great faith that this can happen. But we don’t pretend to know exactly how events will play out. Thus, we are continuing to prepare for the worst case scenarios.

Among them:

* an apocalyptic, prophetic war in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran

* another “regular” but horrifying geopolitical war in the region as a follow-up to the Second Lebanon War in 2006

* catastrophic al Qaeda attacks in the U.S., Europe and/or in the Holy Land

Most of our Joshua Fund team is on the ground in Israel right making preparations to provide more food, clothing, medical equipment and other emergency relief supplies to those who need them now, and those who could be victims of coming wars and terrorist attacks. I leave for Israel tomorrow to join them and, Lord willing, will send updates during that trip.

That said, here are the key stories my team and I are tracking today:

* REPORT IDENTIFIES UK TERRORIST ENCLAVES: Secret enclaves of al-Qaeda extremists based in London, Birmingham and Luton are planning mass-casualty attacks in Britain, according to a leaked Government intelligence report

* OLMERT AT RABIN MEMORIAL: WE MUST GIVE UP PARTS OF JERUSALEM: “If we want to keep Israel Jewis...

Pakistan threat is real

Tue, 28 Oct 2008 13:22:46 GMT

ANALYSIS-Afghan-Pakistan threat worse for next US president
Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:28pm EDT
By David Morgan

"More disturbing still, analysts say, Pakistan is now facing an existential threat from Islamist militants at a time when the nuclear-armed nation and its new civilian government are engulfed in extraordinarily difficult economic problems."

WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The next U.S. president stands to inherit a potentially more dangerous challenge in Afghanistan and Pakistan than the situation that led to the Sept. 11 attacks in 2001.

The situation is so serious that analysts say the incoming administration will need to move quickly on a broad new initiative to address the Pashtun region, which both countries share, with a mix of military pressure and economic aid.

"It will be extremely important to have an effective new strategy right out of the box. They cannot wait for a lengthy transition," said J. Alexander Thier of the U.S. Institute of Peace, a congressionally funded Washington think tank.

The two U.S. presidential nominees, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, have pledged to make Afghanistan a top priority if elected to the White House on Nov. 4.

More...

Pakistan

Sat, 18 Oct 2008 02:14:19 GMT

Pakistani politicians divided over action on terror
Parliament session split as extremists denounce Nato
Soaring poverty feared to increase suicide attacks

A deep rift over anti-terror policy has opened up within Pakistan's political class, as extremist violence and an economic crisis push the country to the verge of collapse. A special session of parliament called by the government to forge a political consensus on the "war on terror" has backfired spectacularly as parties, including some in the ruling coalition, denounced the alliance with Washington and Nato rather than backing the army to take on the Pakistani Taliban.

A party in the coalition government, the religious Jamiat-Ulama-I-Islam party, has even demanded that, as parliamentarians had received a presentation from the army, Pakistan's Taliban movement should also be allowed to address them. It comes as the political and economic situation worsens, with intensified suicide bomb attacks and an alarming depletion in Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves. The country is seeking an emergency $10bn bailout from the international community, while a severe shortage of electricity is crippling business and punishing households.

Critics of the government, which is led by controversial president Asif Ali Zardari, complain that there is a paralysis of decision-making and policy. A leaked US top secret National Intelligence Estimate on Pakistan concludes that the country is "on the edge". A US official was quoted summing up the assessment as "no money, no energy, no government".

Yesterday a US missile strike inside Pakistan's tribal border area with Afghanistan killed up to six suspected militants, and a suicide attack on a police station in the north-west killed three officers and wounded 15.

More...

Pakistan a Real Trouble Spot

Sun, 05 Oct 2008 11:38:55 GMT

US Strikes in Pakistan Tribal Areas Fuelling "Backlash" - Paper
Posted on: Saturday, 4 October 2008, 03:00 CDT

Text of editorial headlined "Fighting the militants" published by Pakistani newspaper Dawn website on 4 October

Shah Mahmood Qureshi, the foreign minister of Pakistan, has been a largely anonymous figure in the weeks since the US stepped up attacks inside FATA [Federally Administered Tribal Areas] in September. However, Mr Qureshi hit all the right notes in a speech at Princeton University this week. "I'm afraid that a relatively recent element in this already difficult war threatens to undo what we have already achieved," the foreign minister said in a reference to US strikes inside Pakistan. When American Special Operation forces landed in a village near Angoor Adda in South Waziristan in early September, observers pointed out the disastrous potential such attacks had to alienate Pakistani public opinion -- and especially the tribes whose support Pakistan requires to defeat the militants in Fata and northern Pakistan. Since that attack, the Americans have stated their respect for Pakistan's territorial sovereignty, and launched numerous missile strikes inside Fata. US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates has even claimed that the UN charter permits America to act in "self-defence" against militants operating from Pakistani soil, if the Pakistani government is unable or unwilling to do anything about those militants.

The problem is that the Bush administration is desperate for a quick success along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, whereas an effective anti-militancy strategy must necessarily be long-term. And an effective strategy can only be led by Pakistan itself, with some combination of tribal and state action. What Mr Qureshi was highlighting is that at present Pakistan is advancing against the militants, with clear help from local tribes. Lashkars [forces] have been organised by tribes in Bajaur, Peshawar, Khyber, Swat, Dir, Buner and Lakki Marwat, and they have had some success against the militan...

Russia cold war - sending carrier to Venezuela

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 01:01:22 GMT

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The cold war, notched up to another level.

Russia says to send battleship to Caribbean Sea

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will send a nuclear-powered battleship to the Caribbean for a joint naval exercise with Venezuela, Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Monday.

The maneuvers later this year will be the first Russia has conducted in Washington's traditional sphere of influence since the end of the Cold War.

Russia has heavily criticized the United States for sending a sophisticated command ship and two other naval vessels to Georgia, on its southern border, to deliver aid and show support for President Mikheil Saakashvili after Moscow sent troops into Georgia.

Kremlin leader Dmitry Medvedev asked on Saturday how Washington would feel "if we now dispatched humanitarian assistance to the Caribbean...using our navy."

Later that day, a Venezuelan naval official said four Russian warships would visit the Caribbean in November.

More…

Pakistan

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 00:15:21 GMT

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

It gets closer and closer. Maybe even before November?

US confirms ground assault inside Pakistan
By PAUL ALEXANDER – 10 hours ago

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — American forces launched a raid inside Pakistan Wednesday, a senior U.S. military official said, in the first known U.S. ground assault in Pakistan against a suspected Taliban haven. The government condemned the attack, saying it killed at least 15 people.

The American official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of cross border operations, told The Associated Press that the raid occurred on Pakistani soil about one mile from the Afghan border. The official didn't provide any other details.

Pakistan's Foreign Ministry protested saying U.S.-led troops flew in from Afghanistan for the attack on a village in the country's wild tribal belt. A Pakistan army spokesman warned that the apparent escalation from recent foreign missile strikes on militant targets along the Afghan border would further anger Pakistanis and undercut cooperation in the war against terrorist groups.

The boldness of the thrust fed speculation about the intended target. But it was unclear whether any extremist leader was killed or captured in the operation, which occurred in one of the militant strongholds dotting a frontier region considered a likely hiding place for Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida's No. 2 leader, Ayman al-Zawahri.

U.S. military and civilian officials declined to respond directly to Pakistan's complaints. But one official, a South Asia expert who agreed to discuss the situation only if not quoted by name, suggested the target of any raid like that reported Wednesday would have to be extremely important to risk an almost assured "big backlash" from Pakistan.

More…

Pakistan reacts with fury after up to 20 die in 'American' attack on its soil
Simon Tisdall and Saeed Shah in Islamabad
The Guardian,
Thursday September 4 2008

The war in Afghanistan spilled over on to Pakistani territory for the first time yesterday when heavily ...

September Surprise- by Justin Raimondo

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 00:11:52 GMT

According to this report by veteran Washington Times correspondent Arnaud de Borchgrave, the close cooperation of the Israelis with the Georgian military in the run-up to President Saakashvili's blitz of South Ossetia was predicated on a Georgian promise to let the Israelis use Georgia's airfields to mount a strike against Iran.

The main problem for Tel Aviv, in making its threats against Iran at all credible, has been the distance to be covered by Israeli fighter jets, which would have a hard time reaching and returning from their targets without refueling. With access to the airfields of "the Israel of the Caucasus," as de Borchgrave – citing Saakashvili – puts it, the likelihood of an Israeli attack entered the world of real possibilities. De Borchgrave avers:

"In a secret agreement between Israel and Georgia, two military airfields in southern Georgia had been earmarked for the use of Israeli fighter-bombers in the event of pre-emptive attacks against Iranian nuclear installations. This would sharply reduce the distance Israeli fighter-bombers would have to fly to hit targets in Iran. And to reach Georgian airstrips, the Israeli air force would fly over Turkey.

"The attack ordered by Saakashvili against South Ossetia the night of Aug. 7 provided the Russians the pretext for Moscow to order Special Forces to raid these Israeli facilities where some Israeli drones were reported captured."

Doug - This was a move by Russia to force the US to do the dirty work of an Iranian attack and place us in a more difficult geopolitical and economic situation.

After all, if the Israelis attacked, the entire Muslim world would unite behind the Iranians. If, on the other had, the U.S. did Israel's dirty work, with Tel Aviv lurking in the background, it would conceivably be far less provocative, and might even generate sub rosa support among the Sunni rulers of America's Arab allies. It's going to happen anyway, goes the rationale, and so we might as well do it the right way, rather than leave it to the Israelis, who have ...

Subject: Guild Investment Global Market Commentary

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 20:51:05 GMT

Subject: Guild Investment Global Market Commentary
From: GUILD INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT [tshirata@guild-investment-management.ccsend.com]
To: doug@equippingthefamily.org

Guild Investment Global Market Commentary

Written: September 02, 2008

RUSSIA

Russians have been doing variations of the same trick they are now pulling in Eastern Europe for almost a thousand years. In order to "protect Russian citizens", they will hand out Russian passports in regions that they want to control, or (as they did several centuries ago) they will make citizenship claims of the inhabitants of territories that they want. Then, they invade the regions that they wish to control to "defend their Russian countrymen".

After defending their countrymen, they conveniently forget to return the territory to its original owner. Instead, either setting up a puppet state, or annexing and controlling the territory directly.

Below is a map showing significant concentrations of ethnic Russians in the independent states that were part of the Soviet Union.

On occasion, they first foment rebellion in the country to provoke the sitting leaders to respond. When the country in which they are meddling responds, they protect the countrymen like they just did in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Statements this past weekend out of Moscow announcing their intention to protect "spheres of influence" on or near its borders, and other recent statements that they will defend "the life and dignity" of Russian citizens "no matter where they are located" are little more than diplomatic pronouncements of a foreign policy that has existed for nearly a thousand years. Let there be no mistake, the old Russia is back.

Today, Russia has the need to recapture its former glory, and reverse the humiliation of the collapse of its empire. The psychology that "might makes right", and the experience in global politics to know that the west is currently divided and complacent emboldens them further. It appears to us that the South Ossetia adventure is...

FOXNews.com - Russian President Says He's Not Afraid of Cold War - International News | News of the World | Middle East News | Europe News

Wed, 27 Aug 2008 00:42:11 GMT

MOSCOW — Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday that he is not afraid of a new Cold War, but does not seek it.

"We are not afraid of anything, including the prospect of a new Cold War," Medvedev was quoted as saying Tuesday by the ITAR-Tass news agency. "But we don't want it and in this situation everything depends on the position of our partners."

The statement comes hours after Medvedev recognized the independence of two Georgian rebel provinces, defying the West. The recognition follows a short but intense war with Western-allied Georgia earlier this month.